WEEK IN REVIEW
The economic pulse of the U.S. economy continues to send mixed but meaningful signals, as the second quarter of 2025 reveals its hand. GDP expanded at a rate of 3.0%, a healthy pace that reflects resilience in output despite growing concerns about decelerating consumer demand. However, the job market showed signs of wear. Job openings fell by 250,000, suggesting that employers may be scaling back their hiring ambitions. Worse still, non-farm payrolls disappointed with a gain of just 73,000, far below expectations and a potential early warning of broader labor market fatigue.
This softening employment data stands in contrast to the narrative that fueled last year’s growth: consumer strength. Throughout 2023 and much of 2024, Americans spent freely, using pandemic-era savings, low interest rates, and pent-up demand to fuel a boom in goods and services. But that cycle appears to be nearing its end. Consumer companies have been telegraphing slower sales growth since late last year. Cruise lines remain an exception, still reporting strong demand, but airlines and hotels are struggling to maintain pace. The average consumer hasn't shut off spending altogether, they’ve just become pickier and more value-driven.
Large retailers are seeing trade-down behavior among lower-income shoppers, while higher-income households are shifting toward bulk buying. This is a classic sign that inflation fatigue has set in. It’s not just about affordability, it’s about attitude. Consumers are scrutinizing price tags again, and confidence is waning. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs adds to the pressure. Businesses are grappling with rising input costs and a difficult decision: raise prices and risk losing customers, or absorb the costs and compress margins.
Despite these tensions, the balance sheet of the average American household remains surprisingly robust. Since the onset of the pandemic, household net worth has climbed by $50 trillion. Consumers, on average, hold $9 in assets for every $1 in liabilities. That’s a strong foundation. While we’ve seen rising delinquencies in auto loans, student debt, and credit card balances, those categories represent only 25% of total consumer liabilities. The broader picture remains positive, at least for now.
Banks, during their Q2 earnings calls, reported only modest upticks in delinquency rates. In fact, several institutions noted slight improvements in credit quality compared to the previous quarter, along with checking and savings account balances that are still above pre-pandemic norms. So while the warning signs are real, the situation is far from dire.
Still, all eyes should remain fixed on the labor market. The downward revision in Friday’s hiring data raises the risk of a sharper slowdown in consumer activity. If job losses accelerate or if wage growth stalls, consumer credit could be impacted more significantly, creating ripple effects across the economy. But if layoffs remain low and household income stays steady, we could see a prolonged period of slow, steady growth, one that mirrors the late-cycle dynamics of past economic expansions.
The week ahead will bring more clarity. International trade data and the latest Purchasing Managers' Index will offer insight into the global supply chain and production strength. These reports, along with the evolving labor data, will help investors and planners determine whether we’re on the edge of a downturn, or simply adjusting to a post-boom normal.
STOIC WISDOM
In uncertain times, clarity doesn’t come from predictions or models—it comes from mindset. And no tradition is more useful in that pursuit than Stoicism.
Epictetus, one of Stoicism’s most enduring voices, offered this challenge:
“You must stop blaming God, and not blame any person. You must completely control your desire and shift your avoidance to what lies within your reasoned choice.”
It’s not a platitude. It’s a call to re-center your energy on what actually matters, and more importantly, what you can actually control.
There is perhaps no better example of this than Nelson Mandela. Mandela, imprisoned for 27 years under South Africa’s apartheid regime, endured unthinkable conditions. For 18 years, he lived in a small concrete cell, slept on a thin mat, used a bucket for a toilet, and was allowed a single 30-minute visit once per year. The system was designed to break him, psychologically, physically, and emotionally. And yet, it did not.
Instead, Mandela defined the terms of his own resistance. As fellow prisoner Neville Alexander later explained, “If they say you must run, insist on walking. If they say you must walk fast, insist on walking slowly. That was the point. We are going to set the terms.” Mandela shadowboxed and pretended to jump rope to maintain his physical health. He stood tall, refused to cower, encouraged fellow prisoners, and nurtured his self-respect.
Mandela had every reason to rage, to resent, to regret. But he didn’t. Instead, he focused on what remained within his control, his will, his demeanor, his mindset. That is the Stoic ideal brought to life. And it’s as relevant for us today, whether we’re facing career setbacks, investment volatility, or personal disappointments.
We can’t control the market. We can’t stop a storm. We can’t rewrite the past. But we can shape our responses. We can hold ourselves accountable to reasoned choices, not reactive emotions. We can refuse to waste our energy on blame, and instead invest it in planning, perspective, and persistence. As you face this week’s noise, economic, political, or personal, remember: don’t get emotional. Get focused.
TAX TIPS
You might not be able to prevent a hurricane, tornado, wildfire, or cyberattack. But you can absolutely prepare for one. Disaster preparedness isn’t just about water bottles and flashlights—it’s about protecting your financial life. Here’s how.
First, back up your records electronically. This is your first line of defense. Whether it’s cloud storage, a USB flash drive, an external hard drive, or a CD if you’re analog-inclined, make sure your most essential financial records are duplicated and stored offsite. Think tax returns, bank and investment statements, insurance policies, and property records.
Second, document your valuables. Take pictures. Record videos. Walk through your home or office with your phone camera and narrate what you see. This documentation can be a lifesaver for insurance claims and tax deductions related to casualty losses.
Third, revisit and revise your emergency plan. If your household, business, or living situation has changed in the past year, your plan should reflect that. Update contact numbers, responsibilities, and secure storage locations.
Need a great place to start? Check out IRS Publication 4557, Safeguarding Taxpayer Data. It offers a practical checklist and action items for improving your information security. What if disaster does strike and your tax records are destroyed? Not to worry. If your tax advisor prepared the returns, they can usually send you copies. If not, the IRS has your back—but with some caveats.
Tax return transcripts are free and generally available for the past three years. These transcripts include most line items from your original return, though they won’t show changes made after filing. If you need more detailed information, such as account transcripts with changes and status updates, those are also free. But if you need an actual copy of your filed return, you’ll need to request it using IRS Form 4506. There’s a fee, and it may take up to 75 days to process. And if your state collects income tax, you’ll need to contact your state’s revenue department separately.
Finally, don’t forget about your client vault. At Mission Financial Planners, our clients enjoy access to a secure, 64-bit encrypted online vault. Use it to upload, store, and organize your financial life—safely and efficiently. That way, if the unexpected strikes, your information is already protected.
If you're in a federally declared disaster area, remember that the IRS operates a special disaster hotline: 866-562-5227. There’s no fee to request tax records if you’re a disaster survivor.
COLLEGE PLANNING
Let’s talk about one of the most emotionally charged and financially dangerous myths in America: the belief that your child must attend an elite, top-ranked college to be successful in life. Parents across the country are mortgaging their retirements, draining savings, and borrowing aggressively just to afford name-brand schools. And those brand names are not cheap. Some now cost more than $300,000 for a single bachelor’s degree.
Want some sticker shock? Here’s the current annual cost of attendance at a few institutions:
· Fordham University: $80,801
· NYU: $80,878
· George Washington University: $79,410
· Santa Clara University: $76,497
· Emerson College: $76,754
· Drexel University: $76,524
· Loyola Marymount University: $74,309
This isn’t limited to Ivy League schools. Even mid-tier universities in high-demand cities are charging six figures for four years of education. But here’s the truth: there’s almost no correlation between school prestige and long-term life success. Challenge Success, a nonprofit affiliated with Stanford’s Graduate School of Education, published a groundbreaking report dismantling the two most persistent myths:
1. That highly ranked schools are the only ones worth attending.
2. That attending an elite college guarantees high-paying jobs and future satisfaction.
The report, along with a landmark Gallup-Purdue survey from 2014, showed that what matters most isn’t where you go—it’s how engaged you are when you get there. In fact, Gallup’s research found that students who could strongly agree with six specific engagement factors were far more likely to thrive in life and work:
1. A professor who made them excited about learning
2. Professors who cared about them as people
3. A mentor who encouraged their dreams
4. Completion of a long-term project
5. Internship or job experience tied to academics
6. Active involvement in extracurriculars
Only 3 percent of students could check all six boxes. But those who did? They were happier, more successful, and more fulfilled—regardless of the school’s rank.
I’ve seen this firsthand. One of our client’s children didn’t attend an Ivy League school. She went to a small liberal arts school. She received two merit scholarships, graduated without debt, and went on to launch her own business. She’s thriving, and they didn’t have to empty their retirement accounts to make it happen. This isn’t about avoiding prestigious schools entirely. If your child gets into an Ivy League school and it’s a great fit financially and academically, fantastic. But don’t assume it’s the only path. Plenty of excellent schools offer significant merit aid, hands-on experience, and strong mentorship.
You won’t know what’s possible unless you look beyond the rankings. By broadening your search and focusing on outcomes, not logos, you can give your child a great education—and still retire comfortably.
Planning matters. Whether you’re watching the labor market, rethinking your child’s education, or prepping for a disaster, the same truth applies: proactive beats reactive, every time. At Mission Financial Planners, we help you see clearly, act confidently, and stay focused on what you can control.
Because wisdom isn’t just philosophical. It’s financial too.