Weekly Market Recap: Navigating Tariffs, Tech, and the Ties That Bind
Markets don’t move in straight lines. They lurch. They overreact. They anticipate. This past week, we saw all of it packed into a few lines of data and a few hundred basis points of sentiment. At Mission Financial Planners, our job isn’t to chase every tick. It’s to interpret what matters, cut through the noise, and give our clients tools and insights to move forward with clarity, even when the headlines get loud.
This week, the headlines pointed to steady inflation, stagnant producer prices, and a consumer base that’s still unsure, but not yet panicked. Beneath the surface, however, the real story may be told not in percentages, but in tariffs, earnings revisions, and the quiet foundational work of financial planning, specifically, preparing for incapacity, power of attorney issues, and long term care decisions. Markets rise and fall. But the real value, the lasting value, comes from building plans that endure long after the bell rings.
Inflation, Sentiment, and the Tariff Undercurrent
Headline CPI came in at 0.3% month over month, a modest uptick that suggests inflation is not accelerating, but it's also not going away quietly. Producer prices, as measured by the PPI, were flat, indicating that upstream costs are neither adding fuel nor putting out the fire. Consumer sentiment edged up slightly to 61, a signal that people may be feeling a bit better, but not yet confident.
None of this is dramatic on its own, but it feeds into the broader story of a soft landing that hasn’t yet turned into a victory lap. The Fed’s still watching closely. Markets are still guessing. And consumers are still adjusting to the new normal of persistent inflation and geopolitical complexity.
But the real twist in this week’s data came not from prices or wages, but from tariffs. In June, the U.S. government pulled in $28 billion in tariff revenue. That’s nearly triple the $10 billion recorded just three months prior in March. And yet, these costs haven’t fully rippled through consumer price data or corporate earnings reports, at least not visibly.
Earnings Season, Revised Expectations and the Tech Lifeline
Second quarter earnings season is now in full swing, and while results are just beginning to trickle in, the broader narrative is already in motion. Back in April, analysts were forecasting 7.8% year over year earnings per share (EPS) growth for Q2. That number has since been revised down to 3.8%. That’s a 1.5x downward revision, well above the historical average for pre season pessimism.
Why the drop? Analysts cite a combination of weaker margins, limited buyback activity, and rising uncertainty stemming from trade policy. Revenue expectations still provide some support, 3.8 percentage points of growth come from top line expansion, but operating margins are soft, and buybacks, once a consistent tailwind, are now actually subtracting from growth.
In short, Wall Street is cautious. Maybe too cautious. If companies beat these newly lowered expectations, we could see stronger than normal surprise rates and post earnings pops. But even if Q2 beats, it’s likely that expectations for Q3 and Q4 will get cut in the process. The market may enjoy a short term rally, but the long term outlook remains cloudy.
Looking at the year as a whole, consensus EPS growth for the S&P 500 now sits at 8.8%, down from 10.5% earlier in the year. That’s still healthy, but again, it leans heavily on a concentrated group of companies. The so called "Magnificent Seven" are expected to drive 41% of total S&P 500 earnings growth in 2025. Information technology and communication services, just two sectors, will account for 65% of the index’s earnings expansion. This is both a strength and a vulnerability.
Strength, because AI and digital infrastructure continue to unlock new sources of value. Vulnerability, because any stumble in monetization, depreciation costs from capital expenditures, or regulatory surprises could derail the entire story. The tech titans are running the race, but they’re also carrying the baton for everyone else.
Tariffs and Deregulation, Tug of War at the Sector Level
While tech continues to dominate headlines, there are other sectors that quietly contribute to the growth narrative. Financials, for instance, are expected to account for 15% of total 2025 earnings growth. Much of that optimism hinges on continued deregulation. Reduced oversight could boost margins, free up capital, and improve competitiveness, especially among regional and mid sized banks.
But this optimism is being tested by rising macro headwinds, chief among them, tariffs. While tech is seen as a secular growth engine, tariff policy represents a blunt and cyclical risk. The sudden spike in revenue collected from trade duties suggests a tightening loop, costs that may soon show up in earnings, balance sheets, and eventually, in consumer facing inflation metrics.
This sets the stage for a classic tug of war, will sector specific tailwinds be enough to offset macro level headwinds? That’s the question investors must now answer, not with theories, but with capital allocation, diversification, and resilience planning.
The Stoic Reminder, Why We Show Up
Let’s pivot for a moment, from the numbers to the mindset. Because navigating financial markets isn’t just about charts and data. It’s about consistency, clarity, and courage. And sometimes, just getting out of bed.
Marcus Aurelius, in Meditations, wrote:
"Whenever you have trouble getting up in the morning, remind yourself that you’ve been made by nature for the purpose of working with others…"
This is a foundational Stoic principle, we were not made to live in isolation, nor were we built for leisure. We were made to contribute, to participate in the common good. To render works held in common. Civilization isn’t a finished product. It’s a group project. And we all have a role. That means showing up. For your family. For your business. For your plan. If you’re feeling the drag, the mental fog, the excuse factory that kicks in at 6:00 AM, remember this. You weren’t built for the covers. You were built for cooperation. And somewhere, someone is depending on you to act.
Powers of Attorney, Quiet Documents, Massive Impact
Speaking of showing up, let’s talk about preparation. One of the most overlooked, misunderstood, and ultimately essential components of any financial plan is the Power of Attorney. Many people assume that if they’re married, their spouse can automatically make decisions for them if they become incapacitated. That’s not always the case. In many jurisdictions, you need a formal Durable Power of Attorney (POA) in place before any legal or financial authority can be transferred.
There are different types of POAs, immediate, springing, healthcare, mental health, and financial. Each serves a different role. But all have one thing in common, they designate someone to act on your behalf. That person, your agent, has a fiduciary duty. They must act in your best interest, not theirs. One critical detail often overlooked is the HIPAA authorization. Without it, your agent can’t access your medical records or speak with your providers. And if that information is blocked, it becomes impossible to make informed medical or financial decisions on your behalf.
This isn’t just a legal document. It’s a safety net. A peace of mind mechanism. And if it’s not in place when it’s needed, your loved ones may have to go to court just to get the authority to help you. That’s not just stressful, it’s expensive, time consuming, and emotionally draining.
Guardianship and the Modern Framework for Capacity
Closely related to POAs is the issue of guardianship. As more Americans care for aging parents, many find themselves navigating the complex, often overwhelming world of guardianship proceedings. In the past, guardianship was an all or nothing proposition. If a court deemed an adult to be incapacitated, they were stripped of virtually all their rights. A guardian, often a relative or professional, would make all decisions about their health, finances, and living situation. But that’s changing.
Thanks to collaborative work by the American Bar Association, the American Psychological Association, and the National College of Probate Judges, courts are adopting a more nuanced approach. The goal isn’t to take rights away, it’s to protect dignity while still ensuring safety and oversight. Capacity is now viewed through multiple lenses, medical condition, cognition, functional ability, values and preferences, risk of harm, and potential for improvement. It’s not just about memory loss. It’s about context, environment, and specific tasks.
Someone might be able to manage daily expenses but not oversee real estate transactions. They might function independently at home but struggle in a hospital or new setting. Guardianship today can be limited, tailored, and respectful of the individual’s retained abilities.
Financial Planning in the Guardianship Process
For financial advisors, this shift is welcome and necessary. We often see firsthand when a client begins to lose their capacity, subtle changes in spending habits, missed appointments, or confused investment decisions. Advisors aren’t clinicians, but we are witnesses. And in many cases, we’ve built relationships over decades that provide insight no medical chart can offer.
Courts now acknowledge this. Financial advisors can’t make guardianship determinations, but they can provide context, continuity, and support. They can also help families prepare in advance, long before a crisis strikes. If guardianship becomes necessary, the court may ask detailed questions about the person’s financial capacity, Can they manage cash? Sign checks? Give gifts or make a will? Enter into contracts or resist exploitation?
All of this feeds into the guardianship plan, a document that determines not just what rights are taken away, but which ones are preserved.
Values, Dignity, and the True Purpose of Planning
At the heart of all this, POAs, guardianship, investment planning, tax efficiency, is a deeper truth, planning is not just about money. It’s about dignity. It’s about control, even when control starts to slip. It’s about making sure your values carry forward, even if your voice grows quiet. That’s what we do.
At Mission Financial Planners, we’re not here just to chase yield or beat benchmarks. We’re here to build strategies that endure. To help you articulate what matters most, and make sure those priorities are protected in both prosperity and vulnerability. So whether you’re watching markets, adjusting portfolios, or sitting at the kitchen table wondering how to support an aging parent, know this, You’re not alone. There’s a framework for this. There’s a plan for this. And we’re here to walk through it with you.
Ready to plan forward? Visit www.missionfinancialplanners.com, give us a call, or subscribe to stay updated on what matters most, financially and personally.
Because the real work of planning isn’t just managing money. It’s showing up, for the people, the purpose, and the future you’re building.