May your choices be steady, your judgment clear, and your path rise to meet you!
There’s a tendency in markets, especially in moments like this, to feel like everything is happening to us. Headlines stack up, oil prices surge, and volatility begins to dominate the conversation in a way that feels personal. Investors start to say things like, “This market is overwhelming,” or “There’s nothing I can do in an environment like this.” Marcus Aurelius would challenge that instinct directly. He reminds us that “Today I escaped from the crush of circumstances, or better put, I threw them out, for the crush wasn’t from outside me but in my own assumptions,” and that idea cuts straight through the emotional noise investors are feeling right now.
The developing conflict involving Iran and the broader Middle East has undeniably introduced real risks into the global economy. Oil markets have become the focal point, with prices swinging wildly in a range that reflects geopolitical uncertainty rather than normal supply and demand dynamics. In just a matter of days, crude oil has traded between roughly $76 and $119 per barrel before settling near $99, which is an extraordinary level of volatility by historical standards. Prices are not only volatile, they are elevated, with oil up more than 30% month over month and about 25% compared to last year. These are not small moves, and they carry real implications for inflation, economic growth, and financial markets.
Oil matters because it feeds directly into almost every part of the economy, from transportation to manufacturing to consumer goods. Historical data shows that a 10% increase in oil prices can push energy inflation higher by roughly 2.7% and increase headline CPI by about 25 basis points (0.25%) in the following month. That means what is happening in the Middle East is not contained to energy markets, it spreads outward into the broader economy. This is where the chain reaction begins to take shape, because rising inflation pressures force central banks to reconsider their policies. Markets have already responded by removing nearly 40 basis points (0.40%) of expected rate cuts for 2026 in just a few weeks. What felt like a smooth path toward lower rates has quickly become far more uncertain.
In the short term, investors are dealing with a market environment that is more complex than it has been in quite some time. Equity markets have pulled back, with broad indices declining and growth-oriented sectors feeling additional pressure as interest rate expectations shift. Sector performance has become increasingly fragmented, with energy benefiting from higher prices while consumer and industrial sectors face rising cost pressures. At the same time, bond markets are no longer behaving as a simple hedge, because inflation risk is keeping yields elevated even as growth concerns begin to surface. The 10-year Treasury remaining above 4% reflects this tension between competing economic forces. This is the kind of environment that challenges assumptions and exposes weaknesses in both portfolios and decision-making processes.
It is at this exact point that Marcus Aurelius becomes incredibly practical, not philosophical. When investors say the market is stressful, what they are really expressing is their internal reaction to uncertainty rather than the uncertainty itself. The Stoic concept of hypolepsis, or the act of taking up impressions and assigning them meaning, explains why two investors can experience the same market and react in completely different ways. Markets do not come preloaded with emotional weight, they simply present information. The meaning, the stress, and the urgency are all assigned internally. That means the “crush” so many investors feel right now is not coming from the Iran conflict or oil prices, but from the assumptions being layered on top of those events.
Stepping back, the Iran conflict also carries long-term implications that extend well beyond short-term market volatility. Energy markets may begin to incorporate a persistent geopolitical risk premium, which would lead to structurally higher prices and increased sensitivity to global events. Globalization, which has driven efficiency and lower costs for decades, could continue to slow as countries prioritize security and resilience over pure economic optimization. Supply chains may become more regional, more redundant, and ultimately more expensive. Central banks may find themselves navigating a world where inflation is driven as much by geopolitical disruptions as by economic cycles. These are not temporary shifts, they are structural changes that can reshape how investors think about risk and return over time.
While these forces are largely outside of any individual investor’s control, there are areas where control still exists, and those areas matter more than ever. Tax planning is one of the most overlooked but powerful tools available in a volatile environment. The Net Investment Income Tax, which imposes a 3.8% surtax on unearned income above certain thresholds, can significantly impact after-tax returns for higher earners. Those thresholds, $200,000 for individuals and $250,000 for married couples, are easier to cross in strong markets or when income is poorly managed. Volatility creates opportunities to harvest losses, manage income timing, and reposition assets in a more tax-efficient manner. These are not reactive moves, they are proactive decisions that can materially improve long-term outcomes.
Retirement planning is also being shaped by both legislative changes and market realities, requiring a more thoughtful and deliberate approach. The SECURE Act and SECURE Act 2.0 have increased flexibility in some areas, such as raising required minimum distribution ages and expanding contribution limits. At the same time, they have accelerated taxation in other areas, particularly with the elimination of the stretch IRA for most beneficiaries. This means inherited retirement accounts must often be distributed within ten years, increasing the importance of tax planning and income management. In a stable environment, these changes are important but manageable. In a volatile environment, even healthcare planning is important, because the margin for error is smaller and the consequences of poor planning are larger.
The real decision investors face right now is not whether markets will remain volatile, because they will. The real decision is how to interpret and respond to that volatility. It is easy to view current conditions as chaotic, unpredictable, and overwhelming, especially with the constant flow of news related to conflict and economic uncertainty. It is much harder to step back and recognize that volatility is a normal and recurring feature of markets. Marcus Aurelius would argue that the difference between those two perspectives determines the experience far more than the events themselves. The circumstances are the same, but the assumptions change everything.
Disciplined behavior in this environment does not mean ignoring reality, it means responding to it correctly. It means rebalancing portfolios when allocations drift rather than when emotions spike. It means maintaining diversification even when certain sectors appear more attractive in the short term. It means using tax strategies to improve efficiency rather than reacting to headlines. It means sticking to a plan that was built with uncertainty in mind rather than abandoning it when uncertainty appears. None of these actions are exciting, but they are effective, and effectiveness is what ultimately matters.
The Iran conflict will continue to evolve, and markets will continue to respond in ways that feel unpredictable in the moment. Oil prices will rise and fall, inflation expectations will shift, and central banks will adjust their policies accordingly. These external forces will always exist, and they will always create noise. What they cannot do is make decisions for you. That remains entirely within your control, regardless of the environment.
Marcus Aurelius did not remove the challenges he faced, he changed how he interpreted them. Investors today have the same opportunity, even if it does not feel like it in the moment. The “crush” of circumstances is not found in oil markets, geopolitical conflict, or Federal Reserve policy. It is found in the assumptions we attach to those things. Control the assumptions, and you regain control of the experience, and in many cases, the outcome as well.
Eirinn go Brach!