The last ten days have been a reminder that markets do not move in straight lines, and they certainly do not wait for clarity. From March 30 through today, April 9, 2026, investors have been forced to navigate a fast-moving and highly uncertain geopolitical environment as tensions between Iran, Israel, and the United States escalated into direct conflict. Markets have responded the way they always do when uncertainty collides with something as economically sensitive as energy, they have lurched, snapped back, and then lurched again.
At the end of March, the tone was already fragile. The first quarter closed with rising inflation concerns, higher yields, and a growing realization that the Federal Reserve may not be in a position to ease policy anytime soon. Then the conflict intensified, and the market’s attention immediately shifted to oil, supply chains, and the risk of broader regional disruption. Oil prices surged sharply, and with that came a repricing of inflation expectations. Stocks sold off, bonds struggled, and diversification did not provide the same cushion investors had grown accustomed to in calmer periods.
As we moved into April, the pattern became even clearer. Every headline created a reaction. Escalation pushed markets lower, ceasefire rumors sparked rallies, and renewed uncertainty erased those gains just as quickly. That is the definition of a whipsaw environment. Investors who tried to trade every move found themselves chasing shadows, while those anchored to a disciplined strategy were forced to endure uncomfortable volatility.
The underlying driver of this instability is not just the conflict itself, but what it represents. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the most critical energy chokepoints in the world, and any disruption to the flow of oil through that region has immediate and global consequences. Reports throughout this period have pointed to constrained shipping activity, strategic signaling from Iran, and the very real possibility that energy flows could be used as leverage. Markets are not just reacting to what has happened, they are constantly repricing what could happen next. That is why oil has remained elevated even on days when equities have rallied. The risk has not gone away, it has simply become harder to quantify.
This is where the conversation around investing becomes uncomfortable, because the correct response in moments like this often runs directly against human instinct. The financial services industry has been remarkably consistent on this point for decades, and for good reason. Staying invested, maintaining discipline, and resisting the urge to react to short term noise has historically produced better long-term outcomes than attempting to time the market. Data continues to support this. Investors who jump in and out of markets based on headlines tend to miss the strongest recovery days, and those days often account for a significant portion of long-term returns.
That does not mean ignoring reality. It means understanding your exposure to it. A well-constructed plan accounts for volatility before it arrives. It includes diversification, liquidity, and a clear understanding of time horizon. It recognizes that markets can fall sharply and recover just as quickly, often before there is any sense of resolution. The investors who benefit from those recoveries are the ones who stayed in the game.
This is where the wisdom of Epictetus becomes more than philosophy, it becomes practical guidance. “There are two things that must be rooted out in human beings, arrogant opinion and mistrust.” That insight cuts directly into how investors tend to behave during periods like this.
Arrogant opinion shows up when someone believes they know exactly how this conflict will unfold, where oil prices are headed, or what the market will do next. It leads to overconfidence, concentrated bets, and decisions that are far more about being right than about being resilient. Mistrust shows up on the other end of the spectrum. It tells investors that the situation is hopeless, that markets are broken, and that the only rational move is to step aside entirely. Both instincts are dangerous, and both tend to produce poor outcomes.
A better approach starts with better questions. What have I not considered? Am I reacting to new information, or simply amplifying my own fears? Is my portfolio built around my long-term goals, or around short term expectations? Do I actually understand the risks I am trying to avoid? Could I be wrong?
Those questions create space for better decisions. They force a level of humility that is essential in uncertain environments. They also bring the focus back to what can be controlled, which is where real progress is made.
That control becomes even more important as we approach the April 15 tax filing deadline, now just days away. In a volatile market, taxes are one of the few areas where disciplined action can produce immediate and measurable benefits. Yet this is also where mistakes tend to happen, especially when investors are distracted.
Common errors still show up year after year. Miscalculating the basis of investments can lead to paying more tax than necessary. Overlooking deductions, such as health insurance or Medicare premiums for business owners, leaves money on the table. Failing to apply carryover losses from prior years can distort the true tax picture. Choosing the wrong filing status or claiming ineligible dependents can create unnecessary complications. Even simple issues like incorrect Social Security numbers, bank account information, or unsigned returns can delay refunds or trigger penalties.
There is also a tendency to avoid fixing mistakes once they are discovered. That is a mistake in itself. Filing an amended return does not invite an audit. It is simply part of maintaining an accurate and compliant tax record. Similarly, if more time is needed, filing an extension is often the prudent move. The penalty structure alone makes it clear that taking the time to get it right is better than rushing to get it done.
The broader point is this. In a period where markets are being driven by forces outside of anyone’s control, the value of disciplined, thoughtful action becomes even more pronounced. You cannot control geopolitical conflict. You cannot control oil prices. You cannot control how markets will react tomorrow morning. But you can control how you prepare, how you allocate, how you manage risk, and how you handle your tax situation.
That is where long term success is built.
Periods like this test conviction. They test patience. They test whether a plan was actually built to withstand stress, or whether it only looked good when conditions were calm. The investors who come through these environments successfully are not the ones who predicted every move. They are the ones who stayed grounded, asked the right questions, and continued to execute on a well thought out strategy.
The world rarely unfolds the way we expect it to. Markets rarely move in a straight line. And certainty, especially in moments like this, is usually an illusion. If there is an advantage to be gained, it comes from recognizing that reality early, adjusting expectations, and focusing on what can actually be controlled.
Root out the arrogance. Let go of the mistrust. Stay disciplined. And do the work that still matters, even when the headlines are doing their best to pull you away from it.