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Weekly Market Recap[i]
The Week in Review
- CPI/Core CPI: 9%/3.2% y/y
- Retail sales grew 0.4% m/m
- PPI rose 0.2% m/m
The Week Ahead
- PMIs
- Existing home sales
Thought of the Week
As President Trump begins his second term, the politically charged environment continues to shape consumer sentiment. The latest University of Michigan survey of inflation expectations revealed a sharp increase, with both one-year and five-year expectations jumping to 3.3%—levels last seen in May 2024 and June 2008, respectively. In contrast, December’s CPI report showed core inflation easing more than expected to 3.2% y/y. This disconnect has investors asking: why are consumer inflation expectations climbing despite signs of easing inflation, and what does it mean for investing?
To answer these, it is important to separate signal from the noise when interpreting survey data. Firstly, household inflation expectations are very volatile and highly sensitive to recent price changes in certain categories like gas (up 4.4%m/m in Dec.). Secondly, as the chart of the week shows, political bias heavily skews responses. Republicans expect inflation to nearly stall at 0.1%—a level the Fed considers unhealthy for economic growth—while Democrats forecast a surge to 4.2%, reflecting strong concerns about tariffs under the new administration. Lastly, consumer surveys often overestimate inflation outside major regime shifts, limiting their long-term reliability. On the other hand, professional forecasters have historically been more accurate. Their latest projection for year-ahead inflation remains at 2.3%, suggesting that not all political rhetoric will translate into policies and inflation will remain contained near the Fed’s target.
For investors, the takeaways are clear: don’t let political leanings influence investment decisions or distract from economic reality. Staying grounded with a well-diversified portfolio is essential to navigating the policy fog of 2025.
For market performance charts and important disclosures, CLICK HERE.
Philosophy Quote of the Week[ii]
“Your principles can’t be extinguished unless you snuff out the thoughts that feed them, for it’s continually in your power to reignite new ones…It’s possible to start living again! See things anew as you once did – that is how to restart life!”
Marcus Aurelius, Meditations, 7.2
Have you had a bad couple of weeks? Have you been drifting away from the principles and beliefs that you hold dear? It’s perfectly fine. It happens to all of us.
In fact, it probably happened to Marcus – that may be why he scribbled this note to himself. Perhaps he’d been dealing with difficult senators or having difficulties with his troubled son. Perhaps in these scenarios he’d lost his temper, became depressed, or stopped checking in with himself. Who wouldn’t?
But the reminder here is that no matter what happens, no matter how disappointing our behavior has been in the past, the principles themselves remain unchanged. We can return and embrace them at any moment. What happened yesterday – what happened five minutes ago – is the past. We can reignite and restart whenever we like.
Why not do it right now?
Tax Tips[iii]
E-Filing Advantages and Tax Return Headaches for Self-Filers
In an era of emails and e-tickets, e-file is great! Most returns are electronically processed. This makes filing returns swifter, smoother and easier. All professional tax preparers are required to file the returns electronically (e-file), except for few options. You can even e-file your tax returns all year long.
If you prepare your own individual tax return, you can choose to e-file or mail it. Whether you prepare your own returns or engage a professional tax preparer, some tax returns still require a copy be mailed to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS).
For instance, you have an Adoption Tax Credit, or there is Identity Theft with your return, or you are sending in amended or past-year tax returns older than 6 years from the due date, then you have to mail your return. If you are divorced and claim the Child Tax Credit but find out later that your ex-spouse claimed the child (even if they were not allowed to) and filed their return before yours, you will need to send in a paper copy of your return with a copy of your Divorce Decree and identification (e.g. driver’s license, passport, state identification card or military identification card). This is the only way to prove that you have the right to claim the child as a dependent and save on your income taxes. The above example is an identity theft issue. These are some of the reasons why you might still have to file your tax return via the US Postal Service (USPS).
Always remember, when you send anything to the IRS or any government agency, always send it certified mail, return receipt requested. This is a way to prove you sent the return to the IRS or state Department of Revenue.
E-File is the preferred method of filing for the IRS. E-filing your tax return has many benefits:
- You can save a digital copy of your tax return, hence fewer paper files for you to keep track of.
- Once you e-file, the IRS will respond to you via email within 48 hours to let you know that your tax return was received and that it is accurate (mathematically) and complete (correct Social Security Numbers, or SSNs). The IRS even tells you if something needs to be corrected and re-submitted, like misspelled names, wrong names, or wrong Social Security Numbers. When you try to submit your tax return with these mistakes you will get a rejection notice that includes an explanation of what is wrong.
- You can also check the refund status of your e-filed tax return. Look under “Where’s my refund?” at IRS.gov.
- E-filing your tax return means you will receive any refund quicker. Taxpayers who e-file their tax returns and used direct deposit usually receive their refund within 10 days.
- You can decide if you want to pay your tax with a credit card or an electronic debit from your checking account. Be careful, both the IRS and credit card companies may charge fees to pay income taxes.
- If your refund is $10,000 or more, expect your refund to be delayed up to nine months while the IRS checks for possible fraud. The benefit of this is that the IRS will have to pay you interest on the refund while they delay paying you.
Tax Return Trouble for Self-Filers
While many people self-file tax returns it usually better to use a professional tax preparer. Here’s a few reasons why:
- You are not a tax preparer! You do not scour over the tax code, read the rules and regulations, go to continuing education classes, pass hard, lengthy, expensive licensing exams and maintain professional licenses, like Certified Public Accountants (CPAs), Enrolled Agents (EAs) and Tax Attorneys (J.D.s) do.
- Tax professionals save you much more than you know. The average self-filer brings home around $1,800, while tax professionals help refund over $3,000. Some people even call their tax professional every time they think of spending money on big items, just to ensure they don’t miss any tax savings!
- A tax professional will prevent you from making the mistakes that cost millions of taxpayers in overpaid taxes.
- Tax professionals save you time! Consider how much time it takes to read, interpret and utilize the tax code, knowing which documents are important (and which ones aren’t), knowing where you kept your old copies when you apply for a loan, keeping up on any new tax regulations, and serving as a sounding board BEFORE you make a mistake.
- Tax professionals are not just for wealthy people! They should be able to save you more than they charge you!
What to Look for in a Tax Professional
You can find a tax professional by searching for CPAs, EAs or Tax Attorneys. CPAs are experts at tax and accounting. EAs are experts at tax. Tax Attorneys are experts at tax and tax law. It takes years to become a CPA, EA or Tax Attorney and they are far better at tax law than the national tax preparation service franchises.
You can find them in your area but ask us or ask your friends and family for a referral. Look for someone who is interested in teaching you how to save money. A good tax professional will review your return and answer any questions before they submit it to the IRS, keep you up to date on new tax developments, and act as experts in tax preparation, resolution and planning.
They can help you save time and money on taxes every year! CPAs, EAs, and J.D.s can legally represent you before the IRS.
Tax season is in full swing so finding a qualified, trustworthy tax expert will only get more difficult between now and April 15. Call today!!
2025 Key Data Card[iv]
Why Use Mission Financial Planners' 2025 Key Data Card and Attend the Webinar on January 22?
Navigating the complex financial landscape of 2025 requires the right tools and insights. Mission Financial Planners' 2025 Key Data Card provides a concise and invaluable reference for critical tax, retirement, and estate planning data. This resource is indispensable for individuals and businesses aiming to make informed decisions about taxes, retirement contributions, and investment strategies. Here’s why you should make this resource a cornerstone of your financial planning:
- Comprehensive Financial Insights: The 2025 Key Data Card outlines essential information, including tax brackets, contribution limits, and estate planning thresholds, helping you avoid costly mistakes.
- Actionable Guidance: Use it to strategize contributions to IRAs, 401(k)s, and HSAs, maximize tax savings, and optimize estate plans to align with the latest tax laws.
- Simplifies Complex Topics: It translates intricate IRS guidelines and thresholds into an easy-to-use format, ensuring you’re always one step ahead in your planning.
Why Attend the Webinar on Wednesday, January 22 at Noon (Central)?
This webinar complements the Key Data Card, offering expert insights into applying this data in real-world scenarios. Highlights include:
- Expert-Led Discussion: Learn from financial planning professionals who will provide strategies tailored to 2025’s unique economic environment.
- Interactive Format: Get your questions answered in real-time, empowering you to make informed financial decisions.
- Practical Application: Understand how to leverage the data card for personal financial success.
Register now to secure your spot for the January 22 webinar and gain an edge in your financial planning journey. Visit Mission Financial Planners Registration Page to sign up. Don’t miss this opportunity to stay informed and prepared!
[i]https://am.jpmorgan.com/content/dam/jpm-am-aem/americas/us/en/insights/market-insights/wmr/weekly_market_recap.pdf. Accessed 01.20.2025. See page 2 for important disclosures.
[ii] Holiday, Ryan. The Daily Stoic: 366 Meditations on Wisdom, Perseverance, and the Art of Living. Kindle edition, page 28. Accessed 01.20.2025.
[iii] Hockensmith, Robert F. 52 Ways to Outsmart the IRS, Weekly Tax Tips to Save You Money. Kindle edition, pages 19-22. Accessed 01.20.2025.
[iv]https://www.horsesmouth.com/shop/download.aspx?i=hzyqhKwku0I%3d&f=5GQCgyHBsIE%3d, accessed 01.20.2025