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📊 Market-Moving News
In September, the Fed kicked off its cutting cycle because “the balance of risks” had shifted. 📉 However, subsequent economic data 📈 and the election results 🗳️ could be shifting it back.
This week’s chart shows that both growth 📊 and the labor market 💼 are tracking stronger than the Fed expected, posing upside risk to inflation. 📈
- Core PCE has come down since 2022 but progress has stalled in recent months.
- Both CPI 📈 and PPI 📈 rose solidly this month, increasing estimates for October PCE.
- Housing inflation 🏠, a driver of CPI, is unlikely to ease soon.
The ~75bp sell-off in the U.S. 10-year since the first cut has pushed mortgage rates from 6.1% to 6.8% 📈, keeping housing purchase activity near its lowest levels since 1995.
While Powell stated at the November meeting that “in the near term, the election will have no effects on our policy decisions,” markets are eyeing the long term. 🕰️
- Immigration restrictions 🌎 could re-heat the labor market, stoking wage growth 💵.
- Tariffs 📦 may increase prices and risk disrupting supply chains 🛠️, potentially reversing recent disinflation in goods.
The Week Ahead: November 11-15
📅 Key Indicators to Watch:
- 🏗️ Home builder confidence index
- 🏠 Housing starts
- 📈 Initial jobless claims
- 🏘️ Existing home sales
- 📊 Leading economic index
- 💡 Consumer sentiment
💭 Philosophy Quote of the Week
Hope and Fear Are the Same
"Hecato says, ‘Cease to hope and you will cease to fear’…" — Seneca, Moral Letters, 5.7b-8
Hope 🕊️ and fear 😟, according to Stoics, are two sides of the same coin—projections into the future 🌌 that distract from the present moment ⏳. The lesson: embrace amor fati (love of fate) and live in harmony with what you can control.
💡 Tax Tips: Business Use of Personal Vehicle 🚗
If you’re practically living in your car for business purposes:
1️⃣ Keep a logbook 📒 tracking miles driven for business vs. personal use.
2️⃣ Choose between two methods:
- Standard Mileage Method 🛣️: Easier but requires mileage and basic expenses.
- Actual Expense Method 🔧: Includes gas, insurance, maintenance, and depreciation.
3️⃣ Maximize your deduction 💰 by comparing both methods before filing.
🚨 Remember: Contact your tax professional for tailored advice!
🌷 Long-Term Care (LTC) Planning Month
LTC: The Double-Edged Sword for Women ⚔️
Women are more likely to:
- Be caregivers 🧑⚕️, facing financial and emotional strain.
- Require long-term care due to longer life expectancy 🌟.
- Spend more time and resources caregiving than men.
Generational Shifts in Caregiving:
- Gen Z (6%) is stepping into caregiving roles, while Baby Boomers (34%) remain the largest group.
- Men are more involved today (39%) but focus more on tasks like bill payments and transportation.
Key Takeaways:
- Plan for caregiving costs 💰 and explore LTC insurance policies.
- Consider the growing preference for home health care 🏠 due to pandemic-related shifts.
- Access online resources 💻 for caregiving, but don’t overlook emotional support from peers.
The Bottom Line
Long-term care affects over 52% of Americans aged 65+. Proactive planning ensures you or your loved ones can handle the financial and personal challenges associated with caregiving. 🌟